2019 Predictions

Restrictions, in order of likelihood:

Grim Monolith adds consistency to the Karn decks. If the powers that be choose to not restrict Karn, Monolith is the most logical choice.

Narset is format warping, but not game breaking. I still can’t wrap my head around this one. There’s got to be a Blue MUD deck out there a la Blue Steel. That deck could run Narset, Karn, future-Urza and Null Rod, and it can still run Ancestral Recall, Thoughtcast, and Hurkyl’s Recall. Mana Drain seems like an optimal choice to ramp into big spells, too. It gets a little wonky trying to Force of Will through a Mycosynth Lattice, but since you’re only running the one in the sideboard, I think it would be fine.

Why Hollow One? Watch this clip.

I’ve been bitching and moaning about Mental Misstep for at least two eons now, but the proof is in the pudding. Compare Legacy before it was printed, while it was legal, and after it was banned. When Mental Misstep was legal, Legacy was a completely different world. You either omitted one drops entirely or flooded one drops and ran it. There was no middle ground. When you compare the decks in Vintage today and you’ll see similar. ChubbyRain argues Mental Misstep helps keeps certain decks in check. That may very be the case, but I argue it hinders format diversity far more than it helps. And a diverse format is a checks and balance in and of itself. You only have 15 sideboard slots.

To top it all off, we get the London Mulligan next month. I think it’s fair to say, in a vacuum, the London Mulligan will add considerable consistency. Dredge’s percentages of Bazaar in the opening hand went up so much, they swapped Serum Powder for Street Wraith.

Since I’m not good with probabilities these days, I think the simplest math says, pick the best 5-card opening hands, then see how many combinations fit that criteria. Then multiply by 55 for a 6 card hand and also multiply by 54 for a 7 card hand (2,970, or ~3,000 to make the math easy). Oh, and if you managed to get your Karn on the table using 4 cards, then multiply by 56 (166,320), and 3 cards lets you also multiply by 57 (9,480,240). And that’s just for on the play.

Then compare that to the chances of opening a 5 card hand.
Take those numbers, multiply each by 100 and divide by 60! to get the percentage value.

Quick Note:
60! is 8.3209871\times10^{81}. That is an 8 followed by 27 commas. That’s how many possible combinations there are in a deck of sixty unique cards. Because this number is so large, it’s damned near impossible for a shuffler to not work, even when it doesn’t work. After you have drawn your opening seven, there are still 53! 4.2748833\times10^{69} possible combinations for the rest of your deck.

It’s going to take me a little while to code this up, but for now, that’s how I would approach the problem. If you math the probabilities, I can help generate the hands. Please, contact me on Twitter.

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